The International media is waking up to a failure called Manmohan Singh. He is being castigated for having created a hopeless situation whereas he is actually caught in helplessness. Most pundits realise that any other leader from the current crop may not have made much of a difference. The nature of current coalitions do not leave a PM with much option but one-step-forward-and-four-backward. Any regional chieftain between Karunanidhi, Mulayam Singh or Mamata is regressive enough to derail most well-meaning agendas. When they act in cohesion, their collective might outweighs the PM-10 Janpath combine on the rare occasion they choose to take a decision.
The masses seem upset with Manmohan because he isn’t stepping down. His spine has disappeared and his guile would do a Machiavelli proud. He is behaving like a politician while people expected a principled schoolteacher. To that extent its only the mask that has come off. And one must give credit to Manmohan to have kept it intact and unscathed for over 2 decades. From a political perspective he has no choice but to demonstrate inertness. The next elections are unlikely throw up a significantly different outcome regardless of who comes to power. We are doomed to an environment of malignant coalitions.
The Congress party’s traditional strategy of plotting against their own regional leaders has caused this. Each powerful regional chieftain has emerged at the cost of a powerful congress leader in the same state. Typically if the Congress has a strong grassroots leader as a CM, his bête noire controls the local party unit. This ensures there are enough pulls and pressures on his power-base to weaken and gradually destroy. Mamata Banerjee was a Congress leader once upon a time who went on to become a minister in the NDA and eventually a non-congress CM. Jagan Reddy will be a powerful influencer after the next polls and shall have the option of joining any coalition on his terms. Orissa had just once leader of stature- Biju Patnaik. He was kept at bay and largely out of power by a successful Congress machinery. Ironically the congress was decimated after he died, in part due to 10 Janpath weakening the local satrap. Scindia and Digvijay Singh shall ensure neither rules M.P. Both shall be supported by the Gandhi family in alternate cycles.
The BJP has strong local leaders too but most of them have governance as their calling card. Raman Singh, Shivraj Chauhan and Narendra Modi are seen as progressive CMs. Their local strength is seen as an asset by the BJP. Each of them have supporters and detractors in the central arrangement. In the absence of a single-point power centre, this acts as a tailwind. Karnataka, the one state they failed was because of the absence of a strong local leader. When we look at regional alliances like JD(U)- BJP in Bihar, or the Shiv Sena- BJP in the past, the BJP has played 2nd fiddle in letter and spirit as mandated electorally. Contrast it with the NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra today where each tires to unseat the other every fortnight.
Future growth will not be a function of the next Prime Minister as much as it will on the nature of mandate. It is important for a national party to get as close to a majority as possible so that coalition partners are seen to be partners in governance and not irritants engaged in perpetual give-and-take. On sheer bench-strength quality the BJP should make a better choice currently, ideally without Mulayam/Mayawati or Jayalalitha/Karunanidhi. And if Narendbhai is not an acceptable choice for PM, we can make do with a Shivraj Chauhan or Raman Singh. The days of the all-powerful PM are history anyway. And we will probably be spared the likes of Sushil Shinde as Home Minister!
The masses seem upset with Manmohan because he isn’t stepping down. His spine has disappeared and his guile would do a Machiavelli proud. He is behaving like a politician while people expected a principled schoolteacher. To that extent its only the mask that has come off. And one must give credit to Manmohan to have kept it intact and unscathed for over 2 decades. From a political perspective he has no choice but to demonstrate inertness. The next elections are unlikely throw up a significantly different outcome regardless of who comes to power. We are doomed to an environment of malignant coalitions.
The Congress party’s traditional strategy of plotting against their own regional leaders has caused this. Each powerful regional chieftain has emerged at the cost of a powerful congress leader in the same state. Typically if the Congress has a strong grassroots leader as a CM, his bête noire controls the local party unit. This ensures there are enough pulls and pressures on his power-base to weaken and gradually destroy. Mamata Banerjee was a Congress leader once upon a time who went on to become a minister in the NDA and eventually a non-congress CM. Jagan Reddy will be a powerful influencer after the next polls and shall have the option of joining any coalition on his terms. Orissa had just once leader of stature- Biju Patnaik. He was kept at bay and largely out of power by a successful Congress machinery. Ironically the congress was decimated after he died, in part due to 10 Janpath weakening the local satrap. Scindia and Digvijay Singh shall ensure neither rules M.P. Both shall be supported by the Gandhi family in alternate cycles.
The BJP has strong local leaders too but most of them have governance as their calling card. Raman Singh, Shivraj Chauhan and Narendra Modi are seen as progressive CMs. Their local strength is seen as an asset by the BJP. Each of them have supporters and detractors in the central arrangement. In the absence of a single-point power centre, this acts as a tailwind. Karnataka, the one state they failed was because of the absence of a strong local leader. When we look at regional alliances like JD(U)- BJP in Bihar, or the Shiv Sena- BJP in the past, the BJP has played 2nd fiddle in letter and spirit as mandated electorally. Contrast it with the NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra today where each tires to unseat the other every fortnight.
Future growth will not be a function of the next Prime Minister as much as it will on the nature of mandate. It is important for a national party to get as close to a majority as possible so that coalition partners are seen to be partners in governance and not irritants engaged in perpetual give-and-take. On sheer bench-strength quality the BJP should make a better choice currently, ideally without Mulayam/Mayawati or Jayalalitha/Karunanidhi. And if Narendbhai is not an acceptable choice for PM, we can make do with a Shivraj Chauhan or Raman Singh. The days of the all-powerful PM are history anyway. And we will probably be spared the likes of Sushil Shinde as Home Minister!
