I am the lone Orissa connection for many of my friends. I am often asked if Naveen Patnaik will win a third term as CM. In my opinion, under two months from now he will. Here is why:
- Congress, the primary opposition party pulls out a semi-retired politician bereft of regional stature from the closet and appoints him as the head of the provincial arm.
- He is assigned 3 lieutenants, all of whom belong to differing local factions to “assist” in the decision making process of ticket allotment.
- The lieutenants expectedly engage in pulling each other in opposite directions only to realize its a futile squabble anyway since the writ of the family head shall reign supreme and any self -styled satrap is at best a courier.
- Consequently, with 45 days to go for polls, each ticket aspirant camps in delhi with hangers-on, mentors, moneybags et al with scant attention for the constituency where the battle ought to have been fought.
- A list of candidates is finally published. As it turns out, this was only to facilitate more trips to the sanctum sanctorium with fresh godfathers to plead one’s case. The original list is revised.
- Now, the party has to go to the polls with 4 categories of “congressmen” in the fray- (1) official candidate (2) official candidate (former), (3) lead dissident (made it to neither list despite best attempts) and (4) fence crosser. (denied ticket by BJD and granted refuge).
With an opposition party in such shape, one does not really need a “chanakya” to strategize for the CM (Patnaik has an over-rated one). The circus around the current General Elections have reinforced my belief in the two-party system. However, Orissa desperately needs a Third Front to prevent further damage to the state. The consequences of having a non-existent opposition are as follows:
- A 11-year old alliance partner is dumped in the face of an opportunistic possibility of a solo government. A big bully arrangement is put forward with the sole objective of humiliating the alliance partner into separation.
- Any pretensions of political scruples are thrown to the winds and last-minute rebel congressmen are not just welcomed but also rewarded with prestigious constituencies.
- A third term by the same government shall ensure there is no political will (or ability) to confront the Maoist menace. Senior law-makers privately concede numerous districts are not in state control. We shall soon grapple with an insurgency situation akin to the North-East.
- The state shall continue to languish at the bottom of the per-capita income charts. I mention this AFTER Law & Order because rule of law is something we have lost only in the last decade and might do so irrecoverably but for rapid damage control. The current state government’s definition of “governance” is restricted to suspending civil servants and cops for alleged misdemeanour.
- Lastly, it pains me to see dictatorial dynasty rule in one’s home state. While it might be argued that every regional party comprises one master surrounded by mass subservience, most states run by regional parties have strong opposing forces who act as a counter weight. In the absence of such a phenomenon in Orissa, complete anarchy prevails.
In my view, the BJD shall form the next government in Orissa and shall also be part of ANY central government formation. Alas, one is not spoilt for choice. I seriously hope we soon have a young leader with mass appeal who shall take up the cudgels of building the state before it degenerates to a point of no return.