I am the lone Orissa connection for many of my friends. I am often asked if Naveen Patnaik will win a third term as CM. In my opinion, under two months from now he will. Here is why:
- Congress, the primary opposition party pulls out a semi-retired politician bereft of regional stature from the closet and appoints him as the head of the provincial arm.
- He is assigned 3 lieutenants, all of whom belong to differing local factions to “assist” in the decision making process of ticket allotment.
- The lieutenants expectedly engage in pulling each other in opposite directions only to realize its a futile squabble anyway since the writ of the family head shall reign supreme and any self -styled satrap is at best a courier.
- Consequently, with 45 days to go for polls, each ticket aspirant camps in delhi with hangers-on, mentors, moneybags et al with scant attention for the constituency where the battle ought to have been fought.
- A list of candidates is finally published. As it turns out, this was only to facilitate more trips to the sanctum sanctorium with fresh godfathers to plead one’s case. The original list is revised.
- Now, the party has to go to the polls with 4 categories of “congressmen” in the fray- (1) official candidate (2) official candidate (former), (3) lead dissident (made it to neither list despite best attempts) and (4) fence crosser. (denied ticket by BJD and granted refuge).
With an opposition party in such shape, one does not really need a “chanakya” to strategize for the CM (Patnaik has an over-rated one). The circus around the current General Elections have reinforced my belief in the two-party system. However, Orissa desperately needs a Third Front to prevent further damage to the state. The consequences of having a non-existent opposition are as follows:
- A 11-year old alliance partner is dumped in the face of an opportunistic possibility of a solo government. A big bully arrangement is put forward with the sole objective of humiliating the alliance partner into separation.
- Any pretensions of political scruples are thrown to the winds and last-minute rebel congressmen are not just welcomed but also rewarded with prestigious constituencies.
- A third term by the same government shall ensure there is no political will (or ability) to confront the Maoist menace. Senior law-makers privately concede numerous districts are not in state control. We shall soon grapple with an insurgency situation akin to the North-East.
- The state shall continue to languish at the bottom of the per-capita income charts. I mention this AFTER Law & Order because rule of law is something we have lost only in the last decade and might do so irrecoverably but for rapid damage control. The current state government’s definition of “governance” is restricted to suspending civil servants and cops for alleged misdemeanour.
- Lastly, it pains me to see dictatorial dynasty rule in one’s home state. While it might be argued that every regional party comprises one master surrounded by mass subservience, most states run by regional parties have strong opposing forces who act as a counter weight. In the absence of such a phenomenon in Orissa, complete anarchy prevails.
In my view, the BJD shall form the next government in Orissa and shall also be part of ANY central government formation. Alas, one is not spoilt for choice. I seriously hope we soon have a young leader with mass appeal who shall take up the cudgels of building the state before it degenerates to a point of no return.
1 comment:
This is a meaningful dissection of the strengths and weaknesses of various political forces that provides a clear insight to the political situation in Orissa.
I agree that the BJD will form the next government in the state but I believe that the megalomaniac going by the name of Chanakya has erred in reading the situation. Or is it? May be he factored in the reduction of seats and weighed it against the tag of a political pariah that Kandhamal brought with it. Now the BJD will be ushered into any camp that it chooses to support.
The severance of ties with the BJP will hurt the BJD by reducing the number of seats that they hold in both the assembly and the Lok Sabha. Going by the plethora of opinion polls that predict a lack of majority for either the UPA or the NDA at the centre, it will pitchfork Naveen Patnaik to the status of another “Dalal” like Amar Singh who will extract his pound of flesh in the guise of a better deal for Orissa.
With around 12 Lok Sabha seats Naveen will join any government that is formed at Delhi. The BJD will most likely demand the cabinet minister’s position for Coal, Mines and Steel. It may however end up with one cabinet berth and two minister-of-state berths.
So get ready to say Minister Sir – “Jay” who?
Where will all these leave Orissa?
Nearly a decade has passed by since the BJD came to power but it has done little for improving agriculture by providing irrigation. Being predominantly an agrarian society, the teeming rural masses are unable to produce more than that required to feed themselves. Education and health care for the masses is practically non existent in rural Orissa.
This has lead to the rural masses in the majority of the districts, (Leaving the 8 coastal districts alone) to fall prey either to the Maoist cause or are “Harvested” by some unscrupulous missionaries.
Without tackling these issues, the BJD is most likely to push forward it agenda of inviting large industries in the Steel, Mining, Power and Aluminium sector. This will serve two purposes:
1. Provide it with more money to fight elections after satiating individual cash needs.
2. Provide it some fodder to equate setting up of these industries as development of Orissa.
I my view this will only increase the gap between the haves and the have-nots. This will only give a fillip to the already fragile law & order and social situation.
I must admit with Chanakya here. In the emerging scenario where the BJD will support the UPA at the centre, he will get his cherished dream of finishing the Congress in Orissa.
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